April 2008: Can there be a future without road accidents?

Can there be a future without road accidents?

Modern cars are fitted with increasingly sophisticated driver assistance systems which help drivers in critical situations but do they also take control away from drivers? James Remfrey, Manager of Technology, Placement and Benchmarking in the Chassis and Safety Division at Continental talks about the future relationship between vehicle and driver.

Continental has set an ambitious goal "Vision Zero”. Is a future without road accidents a realistic proposition?

Driving is a complex scenario whereby various different parameters interlink and the driver is clearly the weakest link. With our technologies, we aim to prevent accidents by using the right tyres and active driving dynamics control systems. If accidents do occur, passive safety systems keep the risk of injury in the vehicle to a minimum. A future completely free of accidents would depend on a variety of different factors.

How exactly do you intend to resolve the issue of the ‘weak human link’?

As a company, we contribute a great deal to road safety, putting ourselves in the position of a hidden passenger. We effectively observe the drivers and take note of all their driving habits. When we feel that something is not right, we help drivers in these situations. How far ahead is the driver in front? Is the driver driving appropriately for the traffic conditions? Does he react to obstacles? We are continually developing our assistance systems such as the ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control), ESC (Electronic Stability Control), emergency braking system, lane departure warning etc for these purposes. It’s all about eliminating the danger from a situation at the earliest possible stage before any harm is done. Ideally, the driver then reacts and thinks “what a great job I just did”, without realising that the system has helped him in the background. This is how things currently stand. In the future, we want more autonomy for technical assistance systems. For example, in particularly critical situations, we want an autonomous brake to be activated if the driver does not react in time. In this way, it will be possible to avoid many serious accidents.

There are already systems which help us to keep in lane, see in fog, avoid driving over unbroken white lines but people still have accidents. What else can we do?

There are many approaches to making driving even safer. At Continental, we have developed the concept of “Conti Guard” to cover this. Conti Guard involves networking all safety systems in vehicles in such a way as to provide a clear picture of the driving and traffic situation. All active and passive safety systems such as airbags, seat belt tighteners and pedestrian protection systems are controlled through seamless communication. Peripheral sensors are crucial here. What is happening on the road? What traffic signs should be observed? What is other traffic on the road doing? Sensorfusion is another important area. This involves applying a wide variety of information from the radar, infrared and camera sensors to ensure that the vehicle functions in a balanced and consistent manner. Safety telematics will also become an increasingly important issue for Conti Guard in the future when vehicles learn to communicate with each other (car-to-car communication).

To what extent is road safety improving?

Let’s take an example. If I am travelling on a country road and the ESC of a vehicle far ahead of me is activated to compensate for skidding on the icy road, my car would receive a warning through a customised car-to-car communications interface. The vehicles behind are thus prepared for a hazardous situation which cannot yet be seen. This year, a large-scale test run will be launched for these types of system in the Rhine-Main region, known as SIM-TD. This stands for Sichere Intelligente Mobilität, Testfeld Deutschland (safe intelligent travel – test area Germany). Many major vehicle manufacturers have collaborated with us in our role as component suppliers to test customised car-to-car communication. The main item being tested is a Telematics Control Unit (TCU). This is the unit through which all information in the car is transferred, and through which, for example, the signal stating that a serious accident has occurred behind the next summit is received, meaning that the vehicle’s speed should be reduced.

How many vehicles do you plan to fit with the new technology for this road test?

We are planning on 300 vehicles to achieve the required results. The research is very much in line with European trends, as this year, the European Union is planning to press ahead with “eCall”. This system automatically sends a signal to the emergency services when a vehicle's airbags are deployed during an accident. The telematics unit is also an essential technical component of this assembly. It already seems clear that these technologies will find their way into vehicles in the near future. With increasing numbers of these vehicles in traffic, the systems will become increasingly effective.

A study has shown that in 2013, approximately three billion euros will be spent on assistance systems compared to current spending of 150 million. What do you think of the trend for increasingly intelligent cars? Will cars soon have higher IQs than their drivers?

If you look at the trend of accident figures over the past years, you will notice very positive developments. In the Seventies there were more than 20,000 deaths per year on the roads in Germany. Today, there are “only” (emphasis on the quotation marks here) 5,000 deaths on German roads per year with almost 50 million vehicles now on the road. Vehicles have been made safer in terms of crumple zones and interiors. However, new assistance systems have also had a hand in this. ESC is now the second most important vehicle technology after the seatbelt in terms of accident prevention. In Germany, 70 per cent of all new cars are already equipped with ESC. Drivers are clearly the weakest link of the chain as regards traffic. It takes a second to react in an accident. At a speed of 60 mph, the car will continue for 30 metres in this first second without the brake being applied, and before the driver has time to react in any way. It is our aim with Conti Guard to take action in this first second to avoid losing precious metres of braking distance. However, I wouldn’t go as far as to say that cars are becoming more intelligent than drivers. Intelligence is an entirely different concept. However, cars are quite clearly superior to drivers in terms of recognising danger and reacting to it.

So who will have the upper hand in future?Driver or vehicle?

The driver will obviously remain in charge. However, there will be situations where the car reacts autonomously and, for example, applies the brakes, which is more than just a warning, and then waits for the driver’s reaction. There are times when you would think that the car is more intelligent than the driver. Let’s look at the example of ASC (anti-slip control). The challenge of getting up an icy mountain is sometimes too much for a human being. They put their foot down even harder on the accelerator, the situation gets worse and, despite quality Continental winter tyres, they do not move an inch. The car will only be able to reach the summit through controlled braking of its spinning wheels and simultaneous reduction of engine torque. This is automatic and in these situations, we provide active support.

Without becoming too philosophical, will this not ultimately take away the driver’s power of decision?

That’s not how I would put it. It depends to what extent we help the driver in his efforts to get safely from A to B. Every car manufacturer has its own philosophy on this. There are vehicle manufacturers which do not want their drivers to be overstretched in certain situations, and their assistance systems will certainly be activated earlier and the vehicle will handle more easily than vehicles driven by a more sporty clientele. In vehicles configured for sport, devices such as the ESC will be activated a little later to keep the vehicle safely on the road. The software allows us to tune the vehicle and give the driver the feeling to various degrees that he is still in command. It’s too early at present to say how this will work on the roads in the future, and whether or not, for example, vehicles will automatically slow down when they pass a speed limit sign. This is an issue for the politicians. Technically, it will be possible.

What role will tyres play in safety in the future?

It is essential to have the right tyres for these systems to work properly. Tyres transfer the power of the vehicle to the road. New vehicle assistance systems may help to make driving safer. However, when the systems, such as ABS or brake assist systems, are engaged, it is always the tyres which transfer the intervention onto the road. We place strong emphasis on tyres as an essential part of accident prevention. We are therefore doing a great deal to further develop intelligent tyre pressure control systems and thus network the tyres with the vehicle. Keeping tyres in a safe condition through optimal air pressure is essential for the success of all other vehicle technologies.

In 30 years’ time, will we still hear traffic reports like: “There has been an accident on the A7. Please use diversion …”?

This will still happen. Obviously there will be new assistance functions in a large proportion of vehicles. However, eliminating accidents altogether is more of a vision than a foreseeable scenario. As long as there are drivers behind the wheel who, despite all the warnings their car gives them, drive the wrong way down a motorway whilst under the influence, we have a problem. However, there are obviously ways of preventing this too, using alcohol detectors for example to prevent people driving whilst drunk. Nevertheless, it is regrettably impossible to make accurate forecasts about the probability of accidents in the future.

Contact:

Alexander Lührs

Head of PR – PLT Tyres

Continental AG

Büttnerstraße 25 , 30165 Hanover, Germany

Phone: +49 511 938 2615

Fax: +49 511 938 2455

E-mail: alexander.luehrs@conti.de

Internet: www.conti-online.com

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